UN envoy makes another push to silence the guns in Tripoli (News analysis by Youssef Ba, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) – Despite a stalemate in the five-month-old fighting near Tripoli, neither side appears to have the appetite for a political solution.

The Tripoli War started on 4 April when forces of the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar attacked the capital in an effort to dislodge the internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj. And it has raged on since them.

The fighting has so far claimed the lives about 1,200, wounded 6,000 and displaced 120,000 others.  Life is becoming more and more unbearable by the day: insecurity, water and electricity cuts, disruption of education are just some of the daily hazards faced by the population.

Sadly, the big powers have looked the other way as their interests in the oil-rich North African country have prevented them from taking decisive action to silence the guns.

Now, the United Nations is making yet another push to resume of the political process through the establishment of permanent ceasefire.

The importance of the crisis exit plan prepared by the special representative of the UN Secretary-General in Libya, Ghassan Salamé, in late July, was reaffirmed during his briefing to the UN Security Council last Wednesday. He stressed to the Council, in a video conference from Tripoli, the need to relaunch the political process to reach negotiated solution.

The UN plan involves the observation of a truce that should result in permanent ceasefire, encouraging talks between Libyan belligerents and talks with their foreign supporters.

Two conferences are due in that plan: An international conference to bring together foreign countries interested in the Libyan dossier and another meeting for Libyans aimed at completing the political process.

The plan is to end the transition in the country by choosing, in an inclusive way, the solution to chart the future of the country and the Libyan government.

Meanwhile, the 4th summit of the Group of the world’s seven most industrialized countries (G7) held recently in Biarritz, France, thre its weight behind the plan of Mr Salamé by carrying out a sharing of tasks so that the international meeting will be supervised by the G7 countries.

The preparations for the conference will be carried out in Paris, France and Berlin, Germany, according to French official sources.  Western diplomats say that the meeting will be held probably in line with the UN General Assembly in New York.

In any case, the question analysts raise is to determine the order of priority between the observation of a durable truce and the holding of the two conferences.

The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, is calling for the conclusion of a permanent ceasefire as pre-condition, saying that Libya needs to immediately end hostilities and ease tension so that the conferences can be successful.

Being the object of interests for certain countries, Libya has become a key stake, said Mr Guterres in an interview with the French radio RFI, stressing that the situation has caused an over armament of the country with third countries flooding the country with arms in violation of the UN embargo.

The same fears are also raised by Salamé, who is worried over the extension of the geographic circle of the violence started by the attack on Tripoli that has interrupted the political process that was close to a positive ending.

But what worries Mr Salamé more are two scenarios: the rise of terrorism and the inflammation of the country and the whole region through the military support of foreign countries to the belligerents in a bid to tip the scales to their favourite.

A ceasefire is therefore crucial to end the cycle of violence to end the bloodshed, insecurity and destruction.

Mr Salamé is seeking to prioritise the holding of conferences to better prepare for the proclamation of a ceasefire.

For now, the lull on the front lines in the past week could be a good omen for a durable ceasefire, provided if it continues.

-0- PANA BY/BEH/MSA/MA 6Sept2019