Status quo remains in Libya's political crisis after lack of progress in UN mediation (News analysis by Youssef Ba, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - Three months after Libya's 24 December presidential election was postponed, the various parties to the conflict in the North African country have barely shifted from their positions.

This is despite the unanimous position that elections offer the solution to end the cycle of violence over the past decade.

But the search for a way out to regain the momentum of the elections has quickly turned sour since the Parliament declared that the term of office of the UN-sponsored Government of National Unity (GNU) ended on 24 December, despite the failure of the election. It then went ahead to appoint a new Prime minister, Fathi Bachagha, who was Interior Minister in the Government of National Accord (GNA).

This action has taken Libya back to a situation of two governments as the GNU prime minister, Abdelhamid Al-Dbaiba, has refused to hand over saying that he will only do so to an elected leader.

These developments have brought back the spectre of a country divided between the east and west and also with two state institutions, particularly two armies.

The eastern-based Parliament, in an agreement with the Tripoli-based High Council of State, a consultative body, amended the Constitutional Declaration and legislated another 14 months interim period before elections.

This runs counter to the aspirations of 2.8 million registered voters, more than 2.5 million of whom had withdrawn their voter cards in anticipation of going to the polls to choose their leaders.

As expected, the Prime Minister of the GNU has rejected this position.

Since then, several initiatives have been proposed to overcome the situation and hold elections as soon as possible.

The Special Adviser to the UN Secretary General, Ms. Stephanie Williams, is pushing for a joint committee of Parliament and the High Council of State to come up with the law for the constitutional basis for presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible.

Mr Al-Dbaiba for his part is proposing what he calls "Return the trust to the people", which consists of organising elections and a referendum in June, in accordance with the roadmap adopted by the Geneva Political Dialogue Forum.

With two governments, the crisis in Libya has deepened, accentuating divisions and polarisation with the risk of tipping the country into civil war.

This is given the support the two prime ministers have among armed groups, where the proliferation of weapons among the population makes it a powder keg.

Ms. Williams' proposal, which has received broad support, both within Libya and among the countries of the international community and major powers interested in the Libyan file, represents, according to analysts, a median solution that is likely to serve as common ground for a consensus by reconciling the positions of the conflicting parties.

But while the High Council of State has welcomed the UN proposal and appointed its representatives, Parliament, led by the Speaker Aguilla Saleh, has poured cold water on it.

This has not deterred Ms Williams who went ahead last week to hold consultative meetings in Tunisia with the group of the High State Council.

They concluded their meeting with the support of the diplomatic corps of the countries accredited to Libya, urging Parliament to join the talks for the coming up with a law for constitutional basis for elections as soon as possible.

This situation places the country in the status quo phase, as no progress towards a settlement of the crisis has been made.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bachagha is still clinging to his goal of settling down in Tripoli to start work even though he still advocates for the peaceful method to achieve his goals.

He has already taken possession of the government headquarters in Benghazi in the east and Sebha in the south where his two deputy prime ministers have occupied the offices.

Ms. Williams is expected in the coming days to apply more pressure on the Parliament to join the negotiations, especially since Egypt, which is allied with the Speaker, has offered to host the next round of meetings of the joint committee.

Political analyst Abdelhafedh Al-Chteiwi said there is a need to involve more regional powers, especially Turkey and Egypt, which have alliances at the local level, even if the process must remain intra-Libyan.

"The Libyan crisis is complex and has important external ramifications that must be taken into account in any equation aimed at achieving a political solution, given that Russia is bogged down in the war in Ukraine," he said.

He suggested that the United Nations should explore this path, relying more on the contribution of foreign countries in particular, as the US ambassador is very committed to the search for a solution.

In any case, it is crucial for the United Nations to obtain a meeting between the representatives of the Parliament and the High State Council within the joint committee during the coming week before the month of Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month that begins in early April.

-0- PANA BY/IS/BBA/MA 28March202