Loss of Tripoli war by Haftar redesigns new outlines of the Libyan conflict (New analysis by Youssef BA, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - Tripoli residents Thursday morning woke up to news of the total liberation of the city of Tripoli encircled for more than 15 months by the forces of Marshall Khalifa Haftar.

The control of the capital, as well as the western region of the country is a defeat that sounds the death knell of the ambitions of the ’Marshall’.

Spontaneous gatherings were held on the emblematic Place of Martyrs in the heart of the Libyan capital to celebrate this moment described as ‘historic’ by several inhabitants of the city who hailed ’the defeat of the aggression and the dictatorial project in Libya’. 

Photos of happy families with smiles on faces on their way back home in certain districts near southern Tripoli, reflecting all the joy of the disappearance of the threat which, all along the past few months, kept in suspense the inhabitants fearing at any time the drop of a rocket, missile or shell on the roof of their houses.  

More than 300,000 Libyans were displaced by the war, forced to abandon, according to the United-Nations, their homes and live in precarious shelters against the vicissitudes of life and the atmosphere in the biggest deprivation in a country with huge oil resources enabling it to feed its citizens in the prosperity and comfort needed for a decent living.  

Slah Abou Ajeila, an executive in an oil company in Tripoli, said that "the will of the presidential council of the Government of National Accord recognized by the international community, but betrayed by the majority of countries of the world who bet on the side of tyranny and militarization of the government, enabled to resist and defeat the barbarian aggression against the capital".

"Only Turkey of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Qatar sides with the international legitimacy by backing on the basis of duly signed documents the Government of National Accord which the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia, France, Jordan and Saudi Arabia side against.

"Neither the chairman of the presidential council, Fayez Al-Sarraj, nor officials of the Government of National Accord doubted at any time the final victory since their cause is fair and is in service of the Libyan people," he added.

According to him, "the order is still the same, that is to say defeating the aggression represented by the attack against the capital to negotiate after with those who believe in a civilian government, democracy, freedom of expression and tolerance".

With this clear and limpid defeat of Haftar’s camp, a new scenario is being redesigned, which will change Libya’s political and military card by imposing the vision of winners. 

For Saad Abdessalem Al-Daimi, a political activist in the east of the country, "Haftar has lost any political and military credibility with this defeat and he must account for his deeds".

"He pushed thousands of Berga (Cyrenaic) sons to death by engaging them on the front in the Tripoli war he lost after sowing violence and terror in Benghazi and Derna, by killing and forcing hundreds of families to leave the region and find refuge elsewhere by making pariahs".

He said that "Haftar should no longer be considered as interlocutor and must account for his deeds for his wrong choices that misled thousands of youths obsessed by an idealistic project of strong government with an army and professional security organs. But, in reality, it is the cult of personality and the absence of freedom of speech that characterize the model promoted by Haftar".

Al-Daimi said that "the forces of the Government of National Accord, galvanized by the successive victories and after the fall of the forces of the General Commandment (Haftar), will turn to the other cities and regions still under control of Haftar to liberate them".

He underlined "the strong determination showed by the forces of the Government of National Accord and the forces backing them".

According to him, "the damage caused by Haftar’s offensive against Tripoli and the western region, particularly in terms of exacerbation of the relations between tribes and the deterioration of the social fabric gave birth to feelings of revenge. This is as much motivation for several to continue this war till the end, that is to say the dismissal of Haftar from the political and military scene".

However, the chairman of the presidential council, Fayez Al-Sarraj, who adopts a more dubious position while rejecting Haftar as interlocutor because of his past attitude with his non-respect of commitments and his loss of credibility for the wrongs he caused the Libyans through his attitude, lays a hand to his supporters to join the legality by dropping their guns. 

In a televised address after the recapture of the international Tripoli airport, he urged the fighting youths to surrender, promising them to receive good treatment. 

He also called on intellectuals, activists, politicians and the civil society to promote the values of rule of law, tolerance, underlining the rejection of armed clashes, violence and the militarization of the government.

The chairman of the presidential council, Fayez Al-Sarraj, however showed during a visit on Thursday to the Turkish capital, Istanbul, the intention of the Government of National Accord to extend the state control to all parts of the country and the application of justice and law.

In a joint news conference with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he added: "Our battle is still underway and we are determined to extend the government control to all regions of the country," underlining that "there is no compromise in the application of justice and the law to demand accounts to all those who committed crimes against the Libyans".

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed that Ankara’s support "for the Libyan people and the legitimate government will continue".

"We underlined the need for a new political move in Libya under the aegis of the United-Nations," Erdogan said about his meeting with Al-Sarraj, calling "the international community to back the legitimate government in Libya".

Contacts have intensified over the past few days in prelude to the resumption of the military talks within the joint 5+5 military commission under the aegis of the United-Nations for ceasefire.

Those talks were conducted by countries interested in the Libyan crisis between them and with belligerents of the Libyan crisis.

Actually, in addition to Al-Sarraj’s visit to Turkey, which was preceded by talks on the phone with the French minister of foreign affairs, Jean-Yves le Drian, the Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, the vice-president of the presidential council, Ahmed Maitig, is since Wednesday staying in Moscow together with the minister of foreign affairs, Mohamed Siala, for talks with Russian authorities.

Marshall Haftar was signaled on Thursday in Cairo where he should hold talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi and other senior officials of the country to discuss the evolution of the situation in Libya.

After the announcement by the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) of the acceptance by the two camps of the resumption of the military negotiations, the meetings within the joint 5+5 military commission began with a meeting presided on Thursday by the acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Stephanie Williams, through videoconferencing with five delegates from the Libyan National Army commanded by Haftar.

It is worth pointing out that the talks are indirect and are conducted through the intermediary of the UNSMIL teams and had ended on 23 February in Geneva in a draft ceasefire proposed by the United-Nations.

The spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, stressed that a similar meeting was expected to take place with the delegation of the GNA in the days to come, confirming the continuation of negotiations on the draft ceasefire and the related arrangements.

Dujarric added that the United-Nations "encouraged Libyan parties to reduce the escalation and envisage a truce to enable a better humanitarian assistance, abstain from any encouragement and create an environment appropriate to talks".

But the latest developments on the military ground show strong ascendant of the forces of the government of national accord who won a series of victories and ousted Haftar’s forces from Tripoli, putting him in a position of weakness likely to have influence on the outcomes from those ongoing military talks, according to analysts. 

The GNA will stick to its guns, that is to say work for the return of Haftar’s forces from where they came before the 4 April attack of 2019 against Tripoli, which implies their withdrawal from Sirte (Center) which control was indeed taken after that date by pro-Haftar forces, according to the same analysts.

Other observers of the Libyan scene predict that the talks will help stabilize the ongoing designed fronts, explaining that the contacts over the past few days aim to formalize this situation that will be approved by the joint military commission while waiting for the political negotiation for a definitive settlement. 

The same observers note that Haftar still has opportunities with the support he receives from his Emirati and Russian allies, who guarantee him both military and political cover at the UN Security Council, which so far made him escape sanctions, despite the attacks against civilians which left hundreds of victims in Tripoli. 

The ideal is that the actors of the Libyan conflict achieve the need to make peace although many Libyans are skeptical over the capacity of belligerents to hold the key for the solution to the crisis, seeing the scale of foreign interference who take hostage the Libyan military and political decision-makers.

 

-0-   PANA    BY/IS/MSA/RA   4Jun2020