Panafrican News Agency

Lack of prospects for settlement of crisis in Libya after failure of parliamentary consensus to organize elections ( Analysis by BA Youssef, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - The horizons are completely blocked in Libya as regards the prospect of a settlement of the political crisis in the country after the failure, on Sunday, of the last round of consultations between the House of Representatives (Parliament) and the High Council of State to determine a constitutional basis for the organization of general elections.

This situation is likely to lead to further escalation in the context of the risk of armed clashes against the backdrop of polarization within the country and blockages outside the country, in particular, at the level of the United Nations.

Even the announcement on Thursday by the Special Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Libya, Stephanie Williams, of the acceptance by the speaker of Parliament, Aguila Saleh and the chairman of the High Council of State, Khaled al-Mechir, of a meeting on 28 and 29 June at the UN headquarters in Geneva to iron out the outstanding disagreements and wait for a consensus on a constitutional framework for the organization of elections in the country, did not provide a dose of optimism.

The third and final round of consultations via the joint commission of the Parliament and the High Council of State from 12 to 19 June in Cairo, Egypt, considered by Mrs. Williams as the last opportunity failed to reach a consensus on the definition of a constitutional basis with the persistence of points of contention that are related to the provisions of the transition period before the elections including the drafting of electoral laws.

The Parliament wants a joint commission to draw up the constitutional document that the legislative body will be responsible for adopting or revising without referring to the High Council of State.

This is a proposal the High Council of State has rejected, demanding to be involved until the end of the process to ensure that the agreement will be implemented without being unilaterally modified by the Parliament.

This reflects the persistence of the mistrust that has marked the relationship between the two chambers in recent years, which has led them to maintain tumultuous relations that have prevented them from agreeing to implement the agreements reached in Hurghada in Egypt, on regalian positions in Bouznika in Morocco, and before that, the failure of negotiations in Tunisia.

For Libyan political analyst Muftah Laabidi, "this reality of bad relations and conflicting relationships between the House of Representatives and the Council of State does not augur well for the planned meeting between Aguila and Al-Mechri".

He has predicted that "the meeting scheduled for the end of June will be crowned by a new failure because there is a logic of arm wrestling between the two institutions that actually want to remain on the Libyan political scene.

He recalled "the failure of the attempt of their meeting on the eve of the closing of the last round of consultations in Cairo", assuring that "if Aguila and Al-Mechri were animated by good will and were concerned about the interests of Libya and Libyans they would have done everything to reach an agreement in Egypt and thus meet the aspirations of Libyans to go to elections as soon as possible.

According to the Libyan analyst, "the expected meeting in Geneva came under pressure from Stephanie Williams who wants to achieve a success in the Libyan file at all costs before her departure, especially since her mission is coming to an end in July, while the member countries of the Security Council are urging the UN Secretary General to quickly appoint a Special Envoy to Libya to lead the mediation efforts.

Thus the chances of reaching an agreement between the speaker of the Parliament and the chairman of the High State Council are minimal, which means that the situation remains very risky in the absence of any prospect of a short or medium term outcome.

These developments come at a time when the legal deadline of the Geneva political agreement of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, establishing a transition in Libya on which was based the government of national unity, Prime Minister Abdelhamid Al-Dbaiba, expired on Tuesday, according to the duration set for the transitional executive authority to 18 months that is to say until 22 June 2022.

This situation has exacerbated tensions in the country and led to a rhetorical surge with the government of Parliament appointed Prime Minister Fathi Bachagha warning against dealing with the rival government.

Mr. Bachagha said the national unity government ended locally with the election of his government by the House of Representatives, and internationally with the end of the Geneva agreement on 21 June 2022, according to the roadmap.

He called in a video for all security, judicial, financial and military authorities and institutions "to stop dealing with the government whose mandate has ended", adding that "anyone who violates this is outside the law, outside constitutional legitimacy and outside legal legitimacy.

In a letter addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the parliamentary-appointed prime minister said the roadmap he presented emphasized the need to focus not only on the elections, but also on offering a multi-dimensional solution to the challenges facing Libya.

He explained that the country was going through a "sensitive stage" that required action from "all leaders in Libya and in the world who believe in democracy to find a solution to the challenges it faces.

The prime minister of the national unity government that emerged from the consensus among Libyans under the auspices of the United Nations in the framework of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, Abdelhamid Al-Dbaiba, has reiterated his refusal to hand over power until there are elections to hand over power to an elected authority.

Last February, he presented a plan he proposed called "Returning Confidence to the People", involving the organization of legislative elections and a referendum on the Constitution, launching a broad consultation on the drafting of an electoral law.

The electoral process to be launched in June by the government of national unity foresees the holding of elections at the end of the current year.

Thus, the Prime Minister of the national unity government, Abdelhamid Al-Dbaiba said, regarding the date of 22 June considered by some as the end of the mandate of his government that the United Nations and the international community refuse to use the date of 22 June as a tool for political manipulation.

He stressed during an intervention Thursday at the Council of Ministers in Jadou (West): "We must complete the elections to be able to implement the roadmap of the political agreement.

For its part, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the government of national unity said that the Geneva Agreement confirmed the end of the transition period by organizing elections and announcing organizational and non-binding dates.

The ministry recalled what was stated in the UN statement, urging to refrain from using the 22 June date as a tool for political manipulation.

The UN urged Libyan leaders to refrain from using the date of 22 June as a tool for political manipulation, referring to the date for the end of the transition period set by the Libyan National Dialogue Forum in Geneva.

"The United Nations regrets that many of the milestones of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum's political roadmap, which were agreed in Tunisia in November 2020, have been lost during 2021, including the holding of national elections scheduled for 24 December 2021," UN Deputy Secretary-General Spokesperson Farhan Haq said at an official press briefing on Wednesday.

He added: "The roadmap specified the end of the transitional phase on 22 June with the condition that presidential and parliamentary elections take place on that date, which did not happen", stressing: "We urge Libyan leaders to refrain from using the date of 22 June as a tool for political manipulation.

Instead, we encourage them to redouble their efforts to maintain calm and stability at this critical stage of Libya's political transition.

The postponement of the 24 December elections led to a stalemate in Libya's political process, resulting in two rival governments vying for power, fuelling tension in the country and bringing it to the brink of a new war because of the support each side has among armed groups based in the west and in Tripoli.

On Wednesday evening, new armed clashes were renewed in Tripoli between two rival armed groups in Zaouiet Al-Dahmani in the centre of the Libyan capital, leaving four people dead, including a civilian, according to sources.

These armed clashes are the third in Tripoli since the emergence of two governments after those of 11 June and 17 May, which directly opposed supporters of the two prime ministers, revealing the risks of a generalized conflagration in the country in the absence of prospects for a settlement of the executive issue.

In addition, the continuing disagreements within the UN Security Council and the ongoing tug-of-war over the appointment of a Special Envoy to Libya among the members of the UN executive body further complicate efforts to find a solution to the crisis in the North African country.

This has had an impact on the extension of the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), which has been temporarily extended four times, instead of the usual one year, reflecting the competition between the US and Western countries on the one hand and Russia on the other.

-0- PANA BY/IS/BBA/RA 23June2022