Panafrican News Agency

Fears of deadlock in political solution in Libya after Ghassan Salamé's departure (News analysis by Youssef Ba, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - A week after the resignation of the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative in Libya, Ghassan Salamé, the country seems to be in a new deadlock.

This follows the suspension sine die of the political process to find a settlement, with the cessation of intra-Libyan talks on the three components under the United Nations: political, military and economic.

Nothing has yet filtered out on the nature of the replacement that the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, might consider to take over from Salamé, the Lebanese diplomat who was also the head of the UN Mission in Libya.

The UN chief, who has accepted Salamé resignation on health grounds, is working for a smooth transition, to ensure the preservation of the gains made so far on the path to a political solution to the crisis.

It is a total blackout on the political scene in Libya where a heavy silence reigns on the political process, whose fate seems to return to square one every time a step has reached an advanced stage of settlement.

For now, there is the risk of intensifying military escalation in the country, particularly in Tripoli, where the fragile truce of 12 January is being put to the test daily with violations via rockets and Grad missiles fired on residential areas, thus forcing citizens to leave their homes.

This is the case for the district near the Maitigua airport, an eastern suburb of Tripoli, regularly bombed by forces of the Libyan National Army led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, which suspects its use for the take-off of drones, which the internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), categorically denies.

Since the military offensive launched on 4 April by Marshal Haftar's forces against Tripoli, the UN death toll announced in early January 2020 has indicated at least 2,000 fighters and 280 civilians have been killed and more than 146,000 displaced from areas of armed clashes.

Mustapha Slah al-Mreiyah, a Libyan expert in military strategy, said: "The current shelling in violation of the truce and the reactions of each side to what it considers to be a violation of the other, can lead from thread to a fire and stoking military tension to lead to large-scale systematic clashes."

According to him, "this scenario is not to be ruled out in the context of a lack of new horizons for a political settlement of the crisis".

"It is always the political deadlock and the deadlocks of the negotiations that lead to military escalations and favour the war as a way out, although so far there has been no evidence of the possibility that one side will take decisive military advantage over the other."

Jumaa Taher al-Hmidi, an executive in a public institution in Tripoli, does not fully agree with Mr al-Mreiyah's arguments about the risks of spillover from the fighting to get back to square one, although he concedes that "the risks are real if the situation is rotten and the political deadlock persists".

He said "this truce is by far the longest that has been accepted by both sides" as it approaches its third month without any major clashes on the various fronts".

It should be noted that the three-pronged intra-Libyan dialogue process overseen by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has made great strides on the economic track with the formation of three commissions to study and leave the problematic issues unresolved until a new government of national accord is formed.

At the political level, the talks got off to a chaotic start with the suspension of the participation of the two Assemblies and the presence of only 20 of the 40 personalities invited to the first round in Geneva.

Discussions on military issues were marked by a lack of progress, apart from the continuation of the fragile truce, which prompted UNSMIL to propose a draft ceasefire agreement that should be discussed with the leaders of each side then finalise it.

Faced with the impasse in the process of finding a solution to the crisis, some Libyans have urged the UN Secretary-General's Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs, Mrs Stephanie Williams, to continue the work began by Mr. Salamé.

For example, Libyan personalities from various walks of life and cities across the country, including an ambassador and two deputy ministers, as well as academics, have called on Mrs Williams to continue the political, economic, military and security dialogue, to find a solution to the crisis.

They announced their "unlimited" support for the political process, asking Mrs Williams "to include representatives of various segments of the Libyan society, especially young people, as well as representatives of non-military combat forces.

She should also use pressure available against the parties seeking to establish the principle of the military solution, in addition to the need to implement the relevant Security Council resolutions on Libya, the latest of which is Resolution 2510 which adopted the results of the Berlin Conference.

They propose "the implementation of the draft agreement in the context of the military talks by applying rules of international law relating to demilitarised zones, and disengagement rules to bring back the normal lives of residents of these zones".

The signatories of the document also called on Mrs. Williams to conduct audits of financial institutions in the east and west of the country, stating their objection "to the of use oil closure as a political tool or to use these facilities to military or paramilitary actions".

The document stressed that the sense of responsibility requires the UN Mission to continue to supervise the dialogue, while informing the Libyan people "of the names of those who obstruct or place their personal interests above the interests of Libyans".

It said that the continuation of these tracks "removes the spectre of war and destruction of our country, and prevents military intervention from abroad represented by well known foreign entities, companies and regional powers".

At the international level, the summit last Thursday in Moscow between the Russian President Vladmir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sponsors of the 12 January truce, did not mention the situation in Libya because it was dominated by the Syrian conflict having resulted in a ceasefire in Idleb province.

However, the dominant position among countries interested in the crisis in Libya, having participated in the Berlin Conference on 19 January, relates to the implementation of the recommendations of this meeting, which were endorsed by a Security Council resolution.

-0- PANA BY/JSG/BBA/MA 9March2020