‘Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis
Rome, Italy (PANA) - The clock is ticking for global food systems as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to choke off the flow of fuel and crucial fertilizers needed for the next planting season – also raising the risk of higher food prices and a new wave of inflation.
A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to restore confidence in the vital maritime corridor, where renewed tensions – including a newly announced US blockade on ships using Iranian ports – are keeping vessels idle and supply chains strained.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway, carries a significant share of the world’s energy and agricultural inputs. Disruptions since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February are already constraining flows of oil, gas and fertilizer for newly planted staples, with ripple effects reaching far beyond the Middle East.
“We have 30-35 per cent of the crude oil, which is not moving, 20 per cent of natural gas...and between 20 to 30 per cent of other fertilizers that are not moving out,” said Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
“That’s the magnitude of the potential impact,” he warned.
While the ceasefire briefly raised expectations that shipping could resume, uncertainty remains high. Talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Pakistan this weekend, failed to yield any breakthrough.
UN News reported that many vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, with new shipments yet to enter the corridor. Shipowners and insurers are reluctant to risk costly assets and crews amid ongoing insecurity. Even if tensions ease, it could take days or weeks for traffic to normalise.
That delay is critical, warns David Laborde, Director of Agrifood Economics Division at FAO.
Much of the cargo that left the Gulf before the crisis has already reached its destination — meaning the world is now entering a phase where supplies could begin to tighten.
“We are going to see the real stop in supply” in the days ahead, he said.
Despite sharp increases in input costs, global food prices have not yet surged, a point FAO economists stress should not be mistaken for a sign of underlying stability.
The FAO’s Food Price Index for March showed only modest increases, reflecting strong global stocks and good harvests last year.
“We have enough supplies...and good stocks which allow the agri-food system...to be resilient to this shock,” Mr. Torero said.
But that buffer may be short-lived. As planting decisions are made in the coming weeks, farmers facing higher costs and limited access to fertilizers may reduce input use or shift crops – lowering yields in the next season.
“If we don’t have the inputs in the time that is needed...that implies that producers will have to produce with less inputs,” he said. “And therefore, they could have lower yields.”
That, in turn, could drive up food prices later in the year and into the next.
-0- PANA MA 14April2026
