Can proxy war in Libya lead to direct military confrontation between foreign powers?(A news analysis by BA Youssef, PANA correspondent)

Tripoli, Libya (PANA) - The complexity of the Libyan conflict, which has gone through more than eight years of armed clashes and continued military escalation that has defied political solution, led to the entry of regional and international organisations, motivated by economic, financial, diplomatic and geopolitical considerations.

The country fell into a proxy war that might lead, with regard to the current latest developments, to a direct military confrontation between foreign powers.

Never has Libya been so close, according to observers, to being the theater of direct clash between foreign countries on its territory in the light of the ongoing military escalation and the will of belligerents to fight with weapons.   

This situation led German Chancellor Angela Merkel to reaffirm that it was “clear at this stage that Libya has become a place of proxy war” as “none of the Libyan parties in presence can alone itself and with their own forces carry out the war”.

This position is shared by the Italian minister of foreign affairs, Luigi di Maio, who underlined the "existence of a proxy war that forces the Libyans to make war", calling ‘’countries interfering militarily in Libya to stop those interventions in order to give more opportunities for a political solution rather than pushing to a generalized civil war".

Libyan analyst Fathi Amor Al-Taher said that "Libya seems to have reached a new line in the crisis after the order given by Marshall Khalifa Haftar to his troops to march to the heart of the capital, Tripoli", adding that "this fuelled tension and caused a generalized mobilisation in the two camps fighting near Tripoli".

According to him, "the precipitation of Haftar by setting all his forces in the battle to take control of Tripoli was motivated by the agreement deals signed between the Government of National Accord and the Turkish government related to the definition of maritime zones and the security cooperation that allows Turkey to send troops and take military support to the presidential Council".

The agreement protocols raised questions, both inside and outside the country, particularly within Haftar’s camp and his ally of the Tobruk Parliament, as well as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, Cyprus and the European Union. 

The approval on Thursday by the government of national accord of the security cooperation agreement with Turkey after its adoption by the Turkish parliament defence commission, paved the way for the implementation of the agreement.

Analysts say that the deal enables the government of national accord, who does not have military support from foreign powers except that of Qatar and Turkey, to benefit from significant support from Ankara with the sending of equipment and even land troops.

On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his will to strengthen cooperation and provide military support for the government of national accord in Tripoli, as well as the support to joint measures in the east of the Mediterranean.

"We will accelerate the rhythm of cooperation between Turkey and Libya," said Erdogan, adding he “is still ready to help in case of need within the framework of the military and security cooperation and the measures taken concerning our maritime rights".

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi, whose country shares border in the east with Libya, said he would not enable “any interference of the troops of a foreign country in Libya” he considers as being part of the depth of Egypt’s national security.

Allied with Marshall Khalifa Haftar, Al-Sissi reaffirmed his support to the Libyan national army, showing his capacity to intervene militarily and directly in Libya.

Egyptian fighter jets in 2013 carried out air strikes against the Libyan eastern city of Derna then occupied by Jihadist groups including Daech, after executing Egyptian Coptics in the Libyan central region of Sirte.

Against the hardly veiled threats, the Libyan presidential council denounced Egypt’s interference, calling the country ‘’to review its positions by playing positive role that reflects the historic and strong relations between the Libyan and Egypt peoples rather than supporting out of law armed groups who attack the Libyan capital, symbol of the unity of the Libyan people".

For university professor Jemal Al-Ghari, "there is real risk of confrontation between Egypt and Turkey if the Turkish troops are deployed in Tripoli, seeing that Egypt will not hesitate to send troops to take assistance to its ally Haftar if he is in difficulties".

He added that "Cairo already send weapons in addition to a political support for Khalifa Haftar with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Russia".

The Special Representative of the UN in Libya, Ghassan Salamé, had warned against the risks of direct intervention of a foreign country in the Libyan conflict with the sending of troops and military equipment.

It seems that premonition is likely to be achieved with an unavoidable military escalation with the participation of foreign troops. 

In addition, the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya with more than 100 fighters are suspected among the members of the private military groups Wargner belonging to a close personality of the Kremlin, which multiplies the risks of direct confrontation with Turkey and Libya.

This is a scenario which a Russian newspaper does not dismiss, saying "everything makes one believe that certain US and Turkish war navies would board on the Mediterranean for an unlimited duration in a bid to contain the escalation in the region after the signing of the agreement protocol between Ankara and the government of national accord, warning against a scenario of Turkish-Russian clash on the Libyan soil".

The Russian newspaper "Nezavismaya Gazeta" wrote about "the divergences between Moscow and Ankara on the conflicts in Libya and Syria persist", adding that "the United States seized the opportunity to carry out joint exercises with Turkey in eastern Mediterranean, despite the threats issued by Washington to impose sanctions on Ankara on the basis of the deal on the S-400 and the declarations made by Turkey concerning the possible expulsion of the US forces from the Incirlik air base".

As for the United States, it got involved in the Libyan dossier denouncing the Russian presence in Libya next to Haftar and accusing Russia of ‘’profiting from the Libyan conflict at the detriment of the Libyan people".

This position foresees a change of cap in the US policy in Libya motivated by signs of rivalries between the two superpowers who want to extend their zones of influence.

 The European Union, which considers North Africa and the Mediterranean as traditional influence zone, do not see positively the presence of all these foreign countries in Libya, which is the main source of pouring of migrants onto the sides of North Mediterranean.

For the European Union senior representative for foreign policy, Josep Borrell, there is emergency to get involved since ‘’we do not have much time in Libya and the state of civil war deteriorates day by day”.

 He underlined the importance for Libya, with regard to its proximity, signaling that the actors who began taking position on the ground were multiple and belonged to the international community which is developing slowly.

Yet, it is worth recognizing that Turkey and Russia strongly share views on Libya and agree on the interventions to make, which is likely to avoid direct clashes between the two countries, all the more since the holding of the international Berlin Conference will be decisive to resolve the Libyan crisis by adopting ceasefire and launching the political process.  

The Italian minister of foreign affairs, Luigi di Maio, said that international parties “have agreed on the title of the final declaration to be made at the Berlin Conference on Libya”, expressing optimism in light of the meetings held with Libyan leaders on Tuesday.

Other motives for this optimism is the common commitment of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte “to work for the success of the Berlin Conference, which should be held soon”, and their appeal to “all Libyan and international parties to abstain from any military action, to engage sincerely in a complete and durable cessation of hostilities and to resume credible negotiations to be sponsored by the United Nations".

 

-0-   PANA      BY/IS/MSA/RA    19Dec2019