Burundi gov't, opposition size themselves up in political landscape (A news analysis by Ferdinand Bigumandondera, PANA correspondent)

Bujumbura, Burundi (PANA) – Last week was marked by an offer of "safe" return for exiled opposition leaders to take part in the next general elections in 2020.

With the exception of some brief harsh criticisms, no formal reaction was recorded in Bujumbura since the release of the communiqué of the National Council for the Defence of Rule of Law and the Inter-Burundian Peace and Reconciliation deal signed in August 2000 in the Tanzanian capital, Arusha (CENARED).

The communiqué announced early in the week the intention of this main opposition platform in exile to hold dialogue with the Burundian government on the modalities of the return of its members and the holding of "credible and inclusive" elections by the year 2020.

The Secretary-General of the ruling National Council for Democracy/Forces of Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), Evariste Ndayishimiye, has compared decision of those opposition leaders with that of "the prodigal son" in the Bible who resolved to return home after failing to sustain himself.

Referring to the theme of a public conference during the week on next year’s elections: "Challenges and perspectives", Willy Nyamitwe, the main communication advisor for Burundi president Pierre Nkurunziza, pointed out that "these candidates returning from exile have noticed their failure to disrupt peace and democracy in their country of origin".

Burundi’s vice-president, Gaston Sindimwo, also said the announced return was occasioned by untenable conditions of exile.  

The CNARED executive secretary, Anicet Niyongabo, cautions that the exiled opposition leaders, against whom international warrants have been issued, "must not walk into the lion’s den" by returning hurriedly to the country.

According to him, the hostile reactions from the pro-government supporters is because of the "fear" for "tough" competition from CNARED in the coming elections.

The previous CNARED communication reaffirmed the desire to "participate in all elections next year" although it was apprehensive that the political space would be closed, oppression against opposition members continued and also enforced disappearances in the country.  

It said the lack of willingness by the Burundian government to dialogue with the opposition for consensual solution for the return of peace and stability is  a major handicap for the creation of favourable conditions for free and fair elections.

Their communiqué made an urgent appeal to the international community and all Burundi’s partners to "continue putting pressure on the Burundian government for favourable conditions for free, fair and inclusive elections".  

The United Nations says at least 1,400 victims of electoral dispute since 2015 are yet to be resolved.

The crisis again reduced the potential voters of more than 400,000 citizens presently in forced exile and whose return home remains slow, despite the repeated appeals and the security guarantees given by the Burundian government.

The return of the opposition leaders has also down over the past few years, because of internal divisions within CNARED for leadership and others in response to the appeal of the Burundian authorities.

The last radical opposition leaders to the Burundian government seem nevertheless resolved to return home, according to the communiqué.

The announcement made by president Nkurunziza not to run for another term after three five-year terms, including the controversial one in 2015, seems to arouse desire within certain exiled political leaders, according to analysts.

CNARED had been set up in reaction to the 2015 controversial and violent elections, with the objective to restore a new democratic order in Burundi.

The CNARED is currently headed by Dr Jean Minani, a veteran politician and one of the survivors of the 1993 military coup, backed by a retired Burundian army General and former vice-president, Bernard Busokoza.

Several dissidents of the ruling party also hold positions described as strategic within CNARED.

Among other personalities, is Jeremie Ngandakumana, current CNARED commissioner, in charge of the peace process and negotiations after being the head of the ruling party for a long time.

However, as the 2020 elections get closer, mistrust still exists between the government and the opposition, who are deaf to the pressures of the international community who have called for dialogue to create the conditions favorable for eased, free and fair popular elections.  

According to the electoral calendar, the campaign will begin on 27 April and end on 17 May 2020.

The new president will be sworn in before Parliament and the constitutional Court on 20 August 2020.

-0- PANA FB/TBM/MSA/MA 18Aug2019